A quiter farmer mobilisation this time is manifesting into a big movement on the Punjab and Haryana border near Shambhu, as thousands of farmers begin assembling there for an onward march to Delhi, against the Indo-US trade deal.

Unlike in the past farmer movements, where farmers were mobilised for the protest openly, this time, the mobilisation was not on the face. With thousands gathering at Shambhu now, it is clear that the farmers are restive about the proposed deal, as they fear it threatens their economy.

Farmers believe that once the deal is through, it will expose them to competition from US farmers. In the USA, agriculture is highly mechanised, subsidised and land holdings are large, leading to much higher yields of produce than in a state like Punjab with fragmented landholdings. As a result, the economy of scale helps American farmers keep the prices of produce low. Once the deal is through, farmers here feel that the Indian markets will be flooded with cheaper American produce like maize, soybean, pulses and processed agricultural produce. “This will ultimately impact the prices that farmers get here,” said farmer Kulwinder Singh from Nadampura in Sangrur. “We need security and protection from an open trade deal that is in the works,” he added.

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A sum of Rs 73,000 crore is pumped into the state economy for buying wheat and paddy on MSP. The deal might not immediately threaten the MSP-based crops, but when market forces reign supreme, these crops could be affected. “The immediate impact of the trade deal will be on the export of rice, meat & meat products, and dairy products. This deal is being worked outside the framework of the WTO. The MSP is given by the government on only a select number of crops. However, when global market prices will later dominate, MSP-based agriculture will come under a cloud,” says eminent agriculture economist Ranjit Singh Ghuman.

The impact on dairying is what worries the farmer unions the most. Most small farmers in Punjab (40 per cent own less than 5 acres of land) keep dairy animals to supplement their farm income. They will be hurt the most when cheaper dairy products hit the shelves in Indian markets. Sarwan Singh Pandher, leader of Kisan Mazdoor Morcha, who is now leading the march to Delhi, had told The Tribune last week that reduction in import tariffs will lead to flooding of American dairy products and milk prices here will see a sharp fall. “The farmers will lose on their supplementary income. Many women in rural households do the dairying work and they will be hit economically,” he had said.

In 2020-21, the farmers protest was against the three farm laws that were introduced by the Centre. These three laws — Farmers Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Bill, 2020; Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill, 2020; and, Essential Commodities (Amendment) Bill, 2020; were viewed by farmers as an attempt to corporatise agriculture. As many as 32 farmer unions, set aside their differences and joined hands to form the Samyukt Kisan Morcha. They then got their counterparts in other states to join them, leading to a never before seen farmers struggle, which led to the repeal of the laws in 2021.

This time round, the SKM, though protesting separately against the trade deal, has not joined hands with the KMM or the SKM (non-political) who are leading the protest today.

While in 2020-21, Punjab farmers, with active support of their Haryana counterparts, marched all the way to Delhi borders, this time, smarting from the 2020-21 protests, farmers are being stopped at Shambhu by the Haryana Police, just as they did in 2024.

This farmers’ protest is against the Centre, which is led by the BJP. The saffron party is trying to make political inroads in Punjab, where elections are due in February 2027. As they try to position themselves as an alternative to ruling Aam Aadmi Party, a farming community antagonistic to BJP only goes in the favour of AAP and SAD as the latter, too, has a rural vote base.