Bitcoin bottom alert: Bitcoin (BTC USD) investors are watching two very different signals as they try to determine whether the cryptocurrency's bear market is over.

The first is Bitcoin's well-known four-year cycle, which suggests the market could still face another decline.

The second is the broader economy, where Federal Reserve policy and economic growth could now have a greater influence on Bitcoin's price.

Why Some Investors Expect Bitcoin (BTC USD) to Fall Further

The four-year cycle theory is based on Bitcoin's halving events.

Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed roughly one year after a cyclical peak and around 2.5 years after a halving, as per a report. Past drawdowns have averaged approximately 80%, according to Coin Metrics, Grayscale Investments, data as of July 21.

If the current market follows that historical pattern, Bitcoin could still have further to fall, with a potential bottom expected in September or October.

Why the Fed Could Change the Bitcoin Cycle

The alternative view is that Bitcoin has evolved.

As the cryptocurrency has matured as an asset, its price may now be more closely tied to the same macroeconomic forces affecting major asset classes.

Past Bitcoin bear markets have coincided with slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates.

The latest downturn has also unfolded alongside a major shift in expectations for Federal Reserve policy and rising real interest rates.

Bitcoin May Have Already Reached Its Bottom

From a macroeconomic perspective, Bitcoin may not need to follow the traditional four-year cycle.

If the Federal Reserve avoids additional interest rate hikes and economic growth remains resilient, the cryptocurrency could already have reached its market bottom.

Grayscale's head of research, Zach Pandl, wrote in The Stack Crypto Intelligence, "We subscribe to the latter view. If the Fed forgoes rate hikes and economic growth holds up well, Bitcoin’s price may already have bottomed."

The Bitcoin Market Is Now at a Key Crossroads

The four-year cycle theory points to lower prices and a potential bottom later in the year.

The macroeconomic view suggests the opposite: Bitcoin may have already bottomed if the Fed does not raise rates further and the economy remains strong.

For investors, the key question is whether Bitcoin's future will continue to be shaped by its historical halving cycle or by the broader economic forces that now influence major financial markets.

FAQs

What is the Bitcoin (BTC USD) four-year cycle?
It is a market pattern linked to Bitcoin’s halving events.

Could the Federal Reserve affect Bitcoin’s next move?
Interest rate policy could have a major influence on Bitcoin’s price, as per Grayscale.