The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) will remain in abeyance, and India retains the option of exiting it entirely. According to Government sources, any revival of the pact, in any form, depends on two conditions: renegotiation of the terms of the agreement, and Pakistan ending its support for cross-border terrorism. Work on building additional hydro-electric projects in Jammu and Kashmir is also underway, with an extra 3,500 MW of capacity set to be commissioned this year.
Sources said the treaty, in its present form, “stands eroded” and cannot proceed without renegotiation of the terms signed by the two countries in 1960. The treaty, negotiated under the aegis of the World Bank, allocates the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej between the two neighbours. India put IWT in abeyance in response to the terror attack in Pahalgam in April last year.
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“Any forward movement on the treaty rests entirely with Pakistan,” sources said. “We have seen no indication that Pakistan has done anything to abjure its support for cross-border terrorism or shown readiness to renegotiate the terms of IWT.”
With Pakistan sponsoring cross-border terrorism for the past four decades, India cannot be compelled to remain in the treaty. New Delhi will also not participate in the proceedings of the Court of Arbitration initiated by Pakistan.
“We do not consider ourselves bound by those awards,” sources said.
IWT has a graded dispute-resolution mechanism. First, issues are to be settled between the Indus Waters Commissioners of the two countries. If unresolved, Secretary-level talks are held. If that fails, the matter goes to a Neutral Expert. If that too does not work, it proceeds to the Court of Arbitration.
“Pakistan, in the last two cases, chose to go directly to the Court of Arbitration,” sources said, calling the process illegal.
Sources also rejected Islamabad’s “victim narrative” as flawed. Pakistan has 140 million acre feet (MAF) of water in the Indus. Of this, 35 MAF goes to waste in the sea because no major dam has been built since 1976. Of the remaining 105 MAF, another 45 MAF is lost due to seepage and a poor canal network.
“India’s share from the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — is just 33 MAF. That is less than the amount of water Pakistan wastes and allows to flow into the sea,” sources pointed out.
They added that within Pakistan, Punjab draws more water than Sindh. Unless these internal issues are addressed, attempts to create a narrative against India will not hold.
India is also not attempting to flood Pakistan by opening the gates of the Baglihar or Salal dams in Jammu and Kashmir. The silt is being flushed out as per international norms, sources clarified.
Technology, they noted, has changed enormously in the last 65 years. Climate change has altered water volumes, and India will progressively introduce newer, more contemporary technologies in the construction of dams on its side of the rivers.