Iran’s recent actions over the Strait of Hormuz and its strategy of targeting its neighbours in the Gulf as retribution for the actions of the United States may seem to have been operational masterstrokes. However, in the long run, they may well prove to be strategic blunders that have antagonised the world at large and leave Iran out of the global mainstream and away from the path of sustained economic progress.
For decades, Iran has overplayed its hand in presenting itself as standing up to what it has termed “continued Western imperialism” and in supporting the Palestinian cause through the lens of Islamic resistance — a policy that was not endorsed by most other developed and developing Islamic nations. As the Islamic regime in Iran grew in power, buoyed by its success in standing up to a powerful Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war that stretched through the 1980s, so too did its frustration at being unable to deliver telling blows against the “Big Satan-Little Satan” combination, as it referred to the U.S. and Israel, respectively.
Consequently, it engineered the second phase of its disruptive strategy in the late 1990s by developing and supporting proxies such as the Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis, commonly known as the Axis of Resistance, and liberally endorsed their use of terrorism to cause widespread disruption in the region.
Here again, the Iranians have achieved much tactical success over the last two decades and kept West Asia on tenterhooks, but at a much larger level, it has widened the chasm that exists between itself and the rest of the world barring Russia, China and North Korea. It is this quartet which is shaping the trajectory of fundamentally disruptive resistance to the existing global order.
When you compare this with the orderly way in which countries such as India are also challenging the existing global order with a call for greater multilateralism through dialogue and consensus, one can clearly figure out Iran’s disruptive path.
Notwithstanding much assertion of civilisational and cultural linkages, India has maintained a steady transactional relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran, revolving principally around energy flow, trade corridors and the Chabahar port. Much in tune with its foreign policy of multilateralism in a multi-polar world, it managed to navigate the sanctions regime imposed on Iran by the West and maintained some energy flow based on national interest till it found alternate means and then gradually reduced its import of Iranian crude.
India has only modest diplomatic leverage with Iran and rightly chose not to position itself as an interlocutor during the recent conflict, preferring instead to resort to quiet back-channel diplomacy and frequent calls for restraint. India co-sponsored the UN Security Council Resolution 2817 (2026), which officially condemned Iran’s military attacks and aggressive actions against the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations and Jordan. Adopted on March 11, 2026, the resolution demanded that Iran immediately cease all attacks and threats, particularly those targeting international navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Iran has no doubt been emboldened by its ability to withstand months of the U.S.-Israel bombing campaign. It has come out of the conflict battered and embittered but still standing. With large portions of its military capacity still intact and a regime in power that seems to be now dominated by a combination of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and hard line clerics, it appears that the region can expect continued acts of isolated belligerence that stay below the threshold of conflict. The frenzy of stage-managed grief and genuine hatred towards the U.S. and Israel that was on display on the streets of Tehran for the funeral of its slain leader, Ali Khamenei does not augur well for the future.
Iran’s proposal to levy ‘special rates’ on friendly countries for transit through the Strait of Hormuz is another disruptive attempt at preventing any collective action from energy-hungry countries eager to benefit from this offer.
More recently, Iran’s strikes on tankers following the Omani route through the Strait of Hormuz highlight its propensity to engage in coercive brinkmanship. Such an environment is highly unsettling for a large part of the world including India for obvious reasons — energy and trade corridors running through a volatile geopolitical arena.
It is time that collective pressure from countries other than the West starts building on Iran to desist from its varied coercive methods to keep the region on the edge. As the U.S.’s appetite to remain embroiled in the conflict waxes and wanes, and Israel strains to ‘finish off the job it started’, Iran needs to take a step back and not overplay the advantageous geopolitical hand it currently holds.
As a first step, it must look for windows to extract legitimate leverage accruing from the proposed de-freezing of its assets and widening energy flow from its embattled oil fields and refineries. Despite its isolation from the West, Iran is categorised as an upper-middle-income economy and has much potential for rapid growth, should it desire so for its people.
Arjun Subramaniam is a strategic affairs analyst
Published - July 16, 2026 12:08 am IST